By Scott DiSavino

Oct 29 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures fell about 5% to a seven-week low on Tuesday on forecasts for mild weather through at least mid-November and an increase in output over most of the past several days.

On the last day as the front-month, gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 10.8 cents, or 4.7%, to $2.201 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) by 8:18 a.m. EDT (1218 GMT), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since Sept. 9.

Futures for December NGZ24, which will soon be the front-month, were down about five cents to $2.81 per mmBtu, putting the premium of December over November NGX24-Z24 on track for a record high of 61 cents per mmBtu.

With mild weather squeezing demand and output mostly rising, analysts projected utilities likely injected more gas into storage than normal last week for a second week in a row for the first time since October 2023. There was about 5% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Prior to last week, injections had been smaller than usual for 14 weeks in a row because many producers have reduced drilling activities so far this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low in March. Prices have remained relatively low since then.

In the spot market, pipeline constraints caused next-day gas prices at the Waha hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian Shale in West Texas to remain in negative territory for a record 40th time this year.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slipped to 101.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September. That compares with a record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.

On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by 1.0 bcfd to a preliminary four-day low of 102.2 bcfd on Tuesday after climbing about 2.1 bcfd over the prior five days to a preliminary eight-week high of 103.2 bcfd on Monday. Analysts have noted that preliminary data is often revised later in the day.

Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through at least Nov. 13. But even warmer than normal weather in early November is cooler than warmer than normal weather in late October.

With seasonally cooler coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 99.3 bcfd this week to 102.1 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday.

The amount of gas flowing to the seven big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants rose to an average of 13.0 bcfd so far in October, up from 12.7 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

Analysts have projected that producers would boost output to meet rising LNG export demand with two new export plants - Venture Global LNG's Plaquemines in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy's LNG.N Corpus Christi stage 3 expansion in Texas - expected to enter service later this year.

The Venture Bayou, an LNG tanker, remained anchored near the mouth of the Mississippi River early on Tuesday before heading to Plaquemines, according to LSEG data. In addition, the LSEG data showed the Venture Gator tanker was in the Gulf of Mexico and seemed to be headed toward Plaquemines. Venture Global owns both Venture Bayou and Venture Gator.

Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Kirsten Donovan

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C