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Volatility jumps as markets prepare for action-packed period – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility climbs to a new monthly highVolatility remains very elevated in both gold and silverStock indices continue to experience average volatility Euro/dollar volatility continues to increase, achieving a new 30-day high, as the markets are preparing for Friday’s jobs report, and next week’s US presidential election and the Fed meeting.
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Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, USDJPY, EURGBP

NFP report may shake the markets as EURUSD battles with 1.0800BoJ interest rate may remain steady; USDJPY rises to 3-month highEurozone flash CPI may fail to help EURGBP to recoverUS NFP report --> EURUSDThis week’s US data will provide an update on the US economy and inflation ahead of the Fed's November policy decision.The October nonfarm payrolls report will be the highlight of the week.
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Daily Comment – Dollar, gold and US yields continue to rise

Euro is under pressure again as ECB dovish commentary lingersGold makes a new all-time high despite the 10-year US yield riseUS equities trade with low conviction ahead of Tesla earningsBoC to announce another rate cut, loonie could sufferEuro remains on the back footThe euro is desperately trying to show some signs of life and recover against both the US dollar and the pound.
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EURGBP is trading sideways, a tad below 0.8340Euro bulls are trying to recoup some of their recent lossesMomentum indicators remain mostly bearishFollowing some very volatile sessions that allowed euro bears to push EURGBP at the lowest level since April 2022, it has been a rather quiet start to the week for this pair. The continued dovishness of the ECB is acting as a strong headwind for the euro, while the pound’s short-term performance could be determined by the various BoE speakers schedul
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Volatility remains elevated in FX space and commodities – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility reaches new 30-day highVolatility in both gold and silver jumpsStock indices continue to experience average volatilityEuro/dollar volatility has climbed to the highest level of the past month, as the ECB delivered its much-expected rate cut and the discussion about the November Fed meeting is underway. But more importantly, the market is preparing for the November 5 US presidential election.
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Daily Comment – Strong US data keep the dollar in demand

 ECB cuts rate, keeps door wide open to a December moveEuro suffers as US retail sales surprise on the upsideFocus today is on Fedspeak and in particular Fed’s BosticGold surpasses $2,700 as China announces further measuresECB announces rate cut, prepares for a December moveThe euro suffered another weak session yesterday, with the euro/dollar pair dropping below the key 200-day simple moving average and euro/pound fully erasing the recent UK CPI-induced correction.
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Technical Analysis – EURGBP goes back to a downtrend

EURGBP charts new 2 ½-year low after UK retail sales beat estimates Short-term bias is skewed to the downside, but price near familiar support line EURGBP plunged to a new 2½-year low of 0.8293, weighed by upbeat UK retail sales at 4.0% y/y and a dovish ECB policy stance, which raised concerns about the eurozone's growth.The outlook appears grim: the RSI is declining in bearish territory, and the MACD has crossed below its signal line.
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Volatility eases slightly as the risk on sentiment lingers – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility is very close to the last 30 days’ highVolatility in commodities remains elevatedStock indices experience above average volatility Euro/dollar volatility remains very high, close to the highest level of the past month, as the US dollar continues to rally following a series of strong US data and some hawkish Fedspeak. Interestingly, the volatility of yen crosses has crashed across the board, with the yen surrendering another good part of its recent sizeable gains on th
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ECB to cut rates despite plethora of reasons for a pause – Preview

ECB meets on Thursday; markets expect a 25bps rate cutLots of reasons for a pause, including the lack of staff projectionsBut the ECB might choose to avoid disappointing the marketsThe euro could really benefit from a rate pause ECB meets on ThursdayThe ECB will hold its penultimate meeting for 2024 on Thursday, just five weeks after the September gathering that produced another rate cut.
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Daily Comment – Dollar baffled after mixed data and Fedspeak

Jobless claims contradict the stronger CPI reportFed’s Bostic talks about a November Fed pauseDollar trades sideways as the market still expects a November cutOil and gold in the green, pound doesn’t enjoy today’s dataCPI and jobless claims jump, but Fed’s Bostic makes the headlinesThe US inflation report managed to produce an upside surprise with both the headline and core indicators accelerating by an additional 0.1% on an annual basis compared to the economists’ forecasts.
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EURGBP is trading sideways, below the 0.8400 levelUpleg stopped at a downward sloping trendlineMomentum indicators could turn bullishIt has been a rather quiet session in EURGBP today as the market prepares for today’s Fed minutes release and tomorrow’s US inflation report. Euro bulls tried to extend the recent upleg, but their efforts stopped at the April 23, 2024 trendline with EURGBP now trading below the key 0.8400 area.
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Volatility skyrockets across the board after an eventful week – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility surges to the highest level of the monthVolatility in commodities reaches new monthly highStock indices experience very high volatilityEuro/dollar volatility has reached the highest level of the past 30 days, as the FX market was rocked by the strong US labour market report, denting the possibility of another 50bps Fed rate cut in November.
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Daily Comment – Will the dollar or stocks smile after the non-farm payrolls print?

Spotlight falls on the key US labour market dataNon-farm payrolls to rise by 140k, but could surprise to the upsideDollar to enjoy a strong set of data, equities prefer weaker printsEuro suffering continues, while both gold and oil advanceCould the US labour market data produce a surprise?The countdown to the most crucial set of US data during October is nearly over.
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Midweek Technical Look – Gold, GBPUSD, EURGBP

Gold flatlines ahead of the US nonfarm payrolls report; bulls are still in town GBPUSD sinks after BoE signals aggressive rate cutsEURGBP turns swiftly up within a bearish channel
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Volatility jumps as market prepares for an action-packed week – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility surges as dollar remains on the back footVolatility in commodities reaches new monthly high, led by oilStock indices experience strong volatility amidst a tentative rallyEuro/dollar volatility has jumped over the past week, as the FX market is whipsawed by the possibility of another strong Fed rate cut. Similarly, volatility of most yen crosses has risen aggressively, with the yen surrendering part of its recent sizeable gains on the back of weaker data and a general el
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Volatility drops across the board after the Fed meeting – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility remains low as dollar underperforms Volatility in commodities stays elevated, led by gold Stock indices experience decent volatility despite the rally Euro/dollar volatility has eased a bit over the past week, as the market digested the strong Fed rate cut. Similarly, volatility of most yen crosses has dropped aggressively lower, as the yen surrendered part of its recent sizeable gains, despite the fact that the BoJ maintained the chances of another rate
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Daily Comment – China’s stimulus blitz supports positive equities sentiment

Dollar tries to recover as Fedspeak favors further cuts China announces new measures, positive initial market reaction Aussie benefits from another hawkish RBA meeting Gold, oil and pound rallies continue   Debate for the next Fed cut intensifies US stocks remain in a positive mood as Fed speakers continue to advocate for further rate cuts, despite the fact that the US data confirm the strength of the US economy.
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Technical Analysis – EURGBP sinks to the lowest since 2022

EURGBP resumes downtrend, falls rapidly to 2½-year low Oversold signals detected, price trades at the bottom of a channel   EURGBP plummeted to a 2½-year low of 0.8316 but held above the support line of the almost one-year-old bearish channel, fueling hopes that the bulls could still find a footing. It is important to exercise caution as the RSI and stochastic oscillator have not yet found a bottom in the oversold zone, suggesting that downside pressures could persist for a bit lo
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Technical Analysis – EURGBP trades within tight channel

·       EURGBP finds strong resistance at 50-day SMA ·       Momentum oscillators hold below their mid-levels EURGBP is trading within a narrow range of 0.8420-0.8460 over the last couple of weeks, remaining capped by the flat 50-day simple moving average (SMA) around the 0.8460 resistance. Technically, the RSI indicator is pointing south marginally beneath the 50 level; however, the MACD oscillator is holding above its trigger line beneath the zero line with weak momentum.
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Volatility eases a bit ahead of the key Fed meeting – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility remains low as dollar weakness lingers Volatility in commodities stays elevated led by silver Stock indices and bitcoin experience lower volatility Euro/dollar volatility remains low as the market is preparing for the key Fed meeting on Wednesday that could deliver a previously unexpected 50bps rate cut. Amidst these conditions, yen pairs are experiencing the highest volatility of the past month as the yen continues to outperform its main counterparties on
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