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Daily Comment – Volatility returns with a vengeance ahead of key US events

Month-end pushes stock indices and gold in the redMarket angst could continue going into Tuesday’s US electionFocus today is on the US labour market dataDollar fails to benefit against the euro and the yenMonth-end pushes stock indices in the redThe recent, relatively quiet, market sessions were interrupted yesterday, with a strong correction recorded in both equities and gold.
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Dollar could get a boost from Friday’s US jobs data – Preview

Markets are preparing for next week’s US electionKey US data on Friday, a week before the Fed meetingAnother strong set of data could endanger the Fed rate cutThe dollar could get a meaningful boost against the yenUS election in the spotlightThe US presidential election continues to monopolize the market’s interest. While the outcome is uncertain, most investors have a pretty good idea of the economic agendas of both candidates.
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Daily Comment – Dollar slips amid stronger yen and euro, data barrage continues

Yen up after Bank of Japan sounds more hawkish than expectedEuro climbs on stronger German GDP and inflationDollar choppy after mixed US data, focus turns to PCE inflationStocks struggle on earnings outlook worriesYen gets unexpected boostThe yen firmed up on Thursday after the Bank of Japan struck a somewhat more hawkish-than-expected tone as it kept rates on hold but signalled it remains on track to raise rates further.
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BoJ to stand pat; Yen under pressure – Preview

BoJ expected to leave rates at 0.25%Lowest inflation since April at 2.5%Yen dives to new 3-month lowDecision comes out on Thursday at 03:00 GMTBoJ to leave rates unchangedThe Bank of Japan (BoJ) is anticipated to maintain its existing interest rates during the policy meeting on October 31. This decision reflects Governor Kazuo Ueda’s prudent strategy, highlighting the necessity to evaluate risks, especially those associated with the US economy and fluctuating markets.
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Technical Analysis – USDJPY struggles to destroy 61.8% Fibo at 153.40

USDJPY tests 3-month high again and againRemains well above 200-day SMAStochastic and RSI look overboughtUSDJPY is failing to have a closing session beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the down leg from 161.94 to 139.56 at 153.40 but is creating bullish spikes towards the three-month high of 153.90.The pair remains well above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), but the momentum seems to be weak.
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Volatility jumps as markets prepare for action-packed period – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility climbs to a new monthly highVolatility remains very elevated in both gold and silverStock indices continue to experience average volatility Euro/dollar volatility continues to increase, achieving a new 30-day high, as the markets are preparing for Friday’s jobs report, and next week’s US presidential election and the Fed meeting.
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Technical Analysis – USDJPY tries to rechallenge 3-month high

USDJPY needs a boost to remain above 61.8% FibonacciMomentum oscillators confirm bullish structureUSDJPY is heading north near the three-month high of 153.90 that was reached during Monday’s session, adding more than 10% since it bounced off the 139.56 support level. The short-term outlook is bullish as long as the market is standing above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).Technically, the RSI indicator is crossing above the 70 level, while the stochastic posted a bullish crossover
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Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, USDJPY, EURGBP

NFP report may shake the markets as EURUSD battles with 1.0800BoJ interest rate may remain steady; USDJPY rises to 3-month highEurozone flash CPI may fail to help EURGBP to recoverUS NFP report --> EURUSDThis week’s US data will provide an update on the US economy and inflation ahead of the Fed's November policy decision.The October nonfarm payrolls report will be the highlight of the week.
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Daily Comment – Dollar maintains gains amidst fragile market conditions

Markets prepare for a 10-day long rollercoaster rideFocus today on earnings but key US data in sightGold and bitcoin rally, oil suffers, and 10-year US yield reaches 4.3%Yen suffering might linger as party negotiations continueImportant data week, Alphabet reports todayMarket participants are gradually preparing for an action-packed week, with Friday’s US jobs report being the key event, that also includes some major earnings releases.
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Daily Comment – Oil slumps after Israel’s attack; yen slips on Japan election shock

Oil and gold slide as Israel shows restraint in retaliatory strike on IranYen under pressure after LDP party loses majority in snap electionTrump poll boost keeps dollar firm as crucial US data week awaitsIsrael strikes back at Iran, but relief on measured attackOil prices tumbled as trading got underway on Monday, opening with a gap down as investors responded to Israel’s retaliatory attack against Iran on Saturday.
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Week Ahead – A decisive week for USD with NFP and more; BoJ meets

A crucial week lies ahead with US jobs report, advance GDP and PCE inflationThe Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates, but will it flag a year-end hike?Flash GDP and CPI data for the euro area are also hotly anticipatedAustralian quarterly CPI and UK budget on the agenda tooAll eyes on US data as Fed turns hawkish againThe Federal Reserve’s surprise decision in September to cut rates by a larger-than-expected 50-basis-points seems like a distant memory now, as policymakers are once again sen
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Daily Comment – Tensions remain high in equities

Strong US data is not welcomed by equitiesBusy calendar today but markets are already focusing on next weekJapan holds election on Sunday; the outcome could surpriseBoJ and yen could suffer from a hung parliament Data reconfirm the strength of the US economyYesterday’s PMI surveys release was a stark reminder that the US presidential election is not the sole market-moving factor.
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Midweek Technical Look – USDJPY, US500, Gold

USDJPY finds resistance near the 61.8% FibonacciUS 500 declines near the previous highsGold retreats within ascending channel
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Daily Comment – Stocks under pressure amid US election jitters, dollar extends gains

Reduced Fed rate cut bets and growing odds of a Trump win push up yieldsWall Street slips; gold also takes a hit, but only temporarilyDollar climbs to 3-month high, yen and euro struggleWall Street headed for weekly lossesThe rally on Wall Street came to an abrupt end this week as uncertainty about the looming US presidential election as well as about the pace of Fed rate cuts undermined confidence in risk assets.
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Technical Analysis – USDJPY meets new high around 153.00

USDJPY rallies above 200-day SMAMACD and RSI confirm upside momentumUSDJPY surged to a fresh almost three-month high near 152.85, breaking the significant line of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) to the upside. The price is creating a strong bullish wave from mid-September, adding around 10% to its value.Technically, the RSI is crossing abov
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Japanese election could hold the key to the next BoJ hike

Japanese snap election will be held on Saturday, October 27Governing LDP party vying for another win but outcome uncertainBoJ’s outlook could be clouded if LPD doesn’t achieve majorityYen could suffer if the new government focuses more on fiscal policy Japan holds elections on October 27Just a few days before the key US presidential election and the much-discussed November 7 Fed meeting, Japan will hold a general election.
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Volatility remains elevated in FX space and commodities – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility reaches new 30-day highVolatility in both gold and silver jumpsStock indices continue to experience average volatilityEuro/dollar volatility has climbed to the highest level of the past month, as the ECB delivered its much-expected rate cut and the discussion about the November Fed meeting is underway. But more importantly, the market is preparing for the November 5 US presidential election.
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Technical Analysis – USDJPY poised for a bullish trend reversal

USDJPY jumps back into the 150 area after two monthsCaution needed due to overbought conditionsUSDJPY kicked off the week on a strong note, rising at a faster pace to close above the 150.00 mark for the first time since August. The pickup in the price confirms a bullish breakout above the August high of 149.40 and the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA).
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Daily Comment – Demand for safe assets lingers

Dollar, gold and US yields are on the riseUS presidential election risks start to affect market sentimentFocus today on central bank speakers at the IMF annual meetingBRICS summit could generate headlines, particularly for the Middle EastUS presidential election is firmly on the market's radarThe US dollar continues to enjoy strong demand, outperforming its main counterparts.
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Week Ahead – BoC to speed up rate cuts; flash PMIs eyed for growth clues

Bank of Canada meets; may opt for bigger 50-bps cutOctober flash PMIs to set the mood amid some growth concernsA relatively quiet week otherwise, with mostly second-tier releasesBoC to likely cut by half a pointExpectations that the Bank of Canada will cut rates by 50 basis points at its October meeting firmed up after the latest CPI data. Nevertheless, markets are not fully convinced of an outsized move, hence, there is a little bit of uncertainty heading into Wednesday’s decision by Canada��
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